All of us have recently watched the news concerning Turkey, where an investment for a Mall in Taksim Square
turned into a major riot spreading throughout Turkey. Things begun when a team of
environmentalists went to Taksim
Square to prevent the erection of the Mall and a
replica of Ottoman Barracks there. The police decided to force the
environmentalists out of the square through violence and this was the beginning
of massive, violent antigovernment riots throughout Turkey. According to a friend of
mine of Turkish nationality, the same place many years ago was a Mosque where
some Islamist leaders had executed some of the Kemal’s officers and Erdogan
want to rebuilt this mosque that was destroyed by the Turkish state.
Some people rushed delighted, to speak even for fall of the Turkish
Government, others, though a minority, were very skeptical about the news. The
truth is that Turkish reality is very complicated even for us (who are neighbors)
to understand. There are many factors that define the developments there.
First of all the Turkish media does not share information. Due to the
restriction of media information in Turkey the details of the riots are
unknown even to Turkish people. They generally communicate through the internet
network but the information is inaccurate for the rest of the world (for
example they surely exaggerate the numbers of rioters). Although some years ago
the media were allies of the Kemalists with whom Erdogan was in struggle, and
although he generally limited their power, they seem to support him in general,
whether by governmental restriction, or by choice. It is a great opportunity
for them to trade their position in these events with the Government, forcing
Erdogan to give “something” in return for their support.
Secondly protesters are very differentiated in their goals and reasons
to protest. They have different agendas and most times are opposed to other
protest groups. This means that they are easily divided because the only common
ground they have is the dislike for the AKP (the party of Edogan) government.
All the geopolitical analysts believe that there is no serious alternative for
the government in Turkey
and this is something that most Turks acknowledge. The other political parties
are weak and unable to form alternatives in this situation far more to exploit
in long-term the situation. The most serious is the Turkish Republican Party
which is separated by internal problems.
Once the most influential social group in Turkey is the army. The Army is
much weaker than before some years. The Ergenekon scandal in Turkey forced
many of the high ranking officers out of office, much more to a series of
trials and public disgrace. The Army is weaker, yet strong enough to cause problems
to the AKP Government. It is confirmed that the army gave gas masks to the
protesters and the military hospitals near Taksim area accepted many injured
protesters. It is a chance for army to gain some of the lost power and
acceptance of the Turkish people, but we have to see when and how it will act.
It is a rare chance for the army, yet it is difficult to define the ability of
the army to exploit this situation.
The second most influential group in Turkey are the Kurds. The
governmental Kurdish branch of the PKK supported the protesters. The Kurds are
many millions of people throughout Turkey,
most of whom live in Constantinople and the
eastern territories around the lake Van. Details about the recent agreement
with Erdogan about the cease fire between them and the Kurds are unknown, but
in general terms the Kurds hate the Turks and are very concentrated on their
goal for independence. Erdogan needs the Kurds in order for him to obtain the
needed support to change the constitution and be reelected as president of the Turkish State in 2014. So they have only to gain
from this situation by weakening Erdogan and Turkey in general.
The third most influential group in Turkey (that few people know about)
is the Alevites. Alevites are a muslim herecy which has embodied many christian
traditions in the Islamic religion, proving their Christianic past and their
violent islamization by the Ottomans and the Seljuks. They are counted at least
ten million souls, within the Turkish borders. Erdogan in fulfilling his desire
for the “restoration of the Ottoman Empire”, came in collusion with the Asad
regime in Syria
which derived from Alevite cultural branch of the Syrian society. A fact that,
is, in turn expected to have influenced the Turkish Alevites against Erdogan.
Once his supporters in his struggle against the army, yet now in the best
situation for Erdogan simply neutral, desiring his downfall if there was
someone else to present better their interests.
An important factor in Turkey
is also Fetullah Giulen and his movement. Giulen Institution is an institution
that has been transformed into an islamic influential group with great power.
It has its center in the US
and is constantly funded by the US Government and the movement’s members, as
also by powerful Muslims. Targets of this institution/movement is to enstrength
Turkey
throughout the world and enforce the Islamic faith in general. It funds private
Muslim religion schools all around Turkey
and the Balkans, as also in the Turanic
Territories (territories
with Turanic(=Turkish) population) that are geographically very expanded.
Almost all the countries ending their name to “–stan” are Turkish
nationalities. The AKP and Erdogan were mostly supported by this group and used
its connections and members to reveal the “military plots” and the once
students of these movement (now people in high positions in Turkey) to put
Kemalists behind the bars. But as Erdogan loses his nobility and become more
and more powerful this movement is lessening its support of him. It needs
Erdogan but needs him weaker than itself. So it is not so strange that it
remains neutral, at least until now.
When a group is in the streets protesting, we have a bad habit of
looking only at it. There are many more people all around the country that stay
quietly in their homes and most times are more than the demonstrators. In Turkey these
groups support Erdogan in their majority. It is unknown how they will act when
they will feel that the protesters are declining their opinions because they
are simply more quiet. Furthermore it is imperative to consider the damages
that the crowd is causing to the other citizens. This destruction may isolate
the demonstrating groups from the public opinion, labeling them simply as
“anarchists”, or “outlaws”.
In order for the groups against Erdogan to prevail, they firstly need to
come under agreement and altogether strategically plan their actions. Something
that is unlike due to the collusion of interests. Secondly they need to form a
steady alternative to the AKP Government, which nowadays is none. Thirdly they
need to have further ambitions than simply improve their position. Erdogan is
supported by the illiterate people of Turkey and the Islamic factions,
and this enables him to gain back all of the lost ground in some years.
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